Czech President Milos Zeman will host his Slovakian counterpart Zuzana Caputova today in Prague.
Zeman and Caputova will likely discuss the Ukraine conflict and steps to reduce dependence on Russian oil and natural gas. While Zeman was seen as a pro-Russian figure, the election of a new government in the Czech parliamentary elections last year—coupled with the invasion of Ukraine—have soured Czech-Russia relations. This leaves Hungary’s Viktor Orban as the sole pro-Russian leader in the EU. While Hungary supported initial EU sanctions on Russia, it has since used the unanimity requirement in an attempt to block EU plans for an embargo on Russian oil.
The EU is deliberating between two courses of action to gain Hungary’s approval for the embargo. The first and current course of action is to grant Hungary concessions in return for its support. However, negotiations have largely stalled, making the latter option—an oil embargo that excludes Hungary—more likely. Expect the EU and its member states to proceed with an oil embargo in the medium to long-term regardless of Hungary’s support. Germany—Russia’s largest EU customer—already plans to stop all Russian oil imports by the end of 2022.
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Cian is a Research Analyst and contributes to both Analysis and the Daily Brief. He specializes in Australian and European geopolitics with a particular interest in the strategic autonomy of the EU.