The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) will hold its general elections today.
Elections are occurring amid constant instability in the country particularly with renewed incursions of the militant ethnic Tutsi March 23 (M23) movement into DRC territory in October. The DRC government has struggled to combat the group having recently ruled out requesting the assistance of Russian mercenaries such as Wagner PMC. The incumbent president Felix Tshisekedi is largely expected to be re-elected, however, there are doubts to the fairness of the election with citizens living in rebel-occupied areas being unable to vote and allegations of rife voter fraud.
A DRC under Tshisekedi would likely result in the continuation of the status quo whereby the authority of his central government will remain limited. Should clashes with M23 continue, more foreign involvement is likely, possibly including the deployment of Wagner or other forces— thus exacerbating existing global rivalries.
Cian is a Research Analyst and contributes to both Analysis and the Daily Brief. He specializes in Australian and European geopolitics with a particular interest in the strategic autonomy of the EU.