RADAR SWEEP

Geopolitics Newsletter June 10 – June 16, 2024

G7 leaders meet in Italy following the European Parliament elections

This week, members of the Group of Seven (G7) met in Italy. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni hosted the 50th summit and will assume the G7 presidency until December 31, 2024. Though topics of discussion included AI, climate change and migration, conversations focused heavily on the Ukraine war and the political realities now faced domestically.

The meeting followed recent EU parliamentary elections which showed strong support for right-wing parties across France, Germany and Austria. While the results align with Meloni’s brand of politics for her right-wing party, the Italian Prime Minister has found common ground with other G7 leaders on foreign policy; Meloni has supported funding for Ukraine and upheld NATO unity.

During the summit, G7 members struck a deal to utilize the profits of frozen Russian assets to fund a $50 billion loan to assist in Ukraine’s war effort and economic reconstruction. The decision follows months of negotiations between the U.S. and European allies over how to access the value of approximately $300 billion of Russia’s sovereign assets that were halted in Western financial institutions soon after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Though Ukraine will not receive an invitation to begin membership talks with NATO, U.S. President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a 10-year security pact which U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken called “a bridge to membership”. The pact encompasses long-term military and financial support for Kyiv and is meant to send a message to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Read more.

Indo-Pacific Geopolitics

Chinese property developer’s liquidation hearing resumes – June 11

A Hong Kong court hearing resumed a hearing on the proposed liquidation of Hong Kong Stock Exchange-listed Country Garden, which was previously China’s largest homebuilder. Country Garden began defaulting on international bond payments last October. Read more.

South Korean president Yoon Suk Yeol visits Kazakhstan – June 11

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol began a two-day state visit to Kazakhstan, hosted by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. The visit focused on trade, with both leaders attending a business forum featuring over 50 companies. South Korea and Kazakhstan, major trading partners, aim to boost trade, which exceeded $6 billion in 2023, through new agreements. The visit strengthens Korea’s economic and political influence in Central Asia, bolstering Kazakhstan’s multi-vector foreign policy. Read more. 

IMF reviews Sri Lanka aid – June 12

The second review of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Extended Fund Facility (EFF) ended today. The IMF approved a $3 billion bailout program to restructure and revive Sri Lanka’s economy after the country defaulted on its foreign debt in 2022. Read more.

Diplomacy / Defense / Security

Russian naval ships arrive in Havana – June 13

Four Russian warships, including a nuclear-powered submarine, arrived in the Cuban city. The Kremlin made the move in response to NATO nations lifting various restrictions on the use of weapons supplied to Ukraine. Read more.

UN Secretary-General submits report on children and armed conflict – June 14

For the first time ever, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres added Israel’s military to a global list of offenders for committing violations against children in 2023. The decision comes amid worsening relations between Israel and the UN. Read more.

National Politics / Society

French air traffic controllers strike in Paris – June 11

Air traffic controllers at Paris’ Orly Airport went on strike until Thursday, protesting new responsibilities and a law requiring 48 hours’ notice before striking. With the Olympic Games approaching, the government offered bonuses to prevent disruptions. Unlike May’s strike, which canceled 70% of flights, the SNCTA union did not participate this time, reducing the impact but risking prolonged conflict. Read more. 

Pakistan announces annual budget – June 12

Pakistan’s government presented its 2024-25 budget, which had been previously delayed by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s visit to China. Pakistan has relied on Chinese investment and financial investment to stabilize their economy. Read more. 

Finance / Technology

EU antitrust regulators rule on Lufthansa’s ITA bid – June 13

EU antitrust regulators are set to approve Lufthansa’s $348.5 million bid for a 41% stake in Italy’s ITA Airways. Lufthansa had proposed remedies, including operating ITA independently for two years and giving airport slots to EasyJet and Volotea. The deal is crucial for reviving ITA and avoiding further government investment. Read more. 

See Also

President Biden delivers 2024 State of the Union

South Africa telecom regulator holds public rates hearing – June 13

South Africa’s telecoms regulator, ICASA, hosted hybrid public hearings to reduce voice call termination rates starting next month. The new regulation, announced in March and under review since 2021, will lower rates for small and large network providers. Expected to enhance the telecom billing system, the regulator projects that the rules will positively affect South Africa’s economy, which relies on telecommunications for 7% of its GDP. Read More. 

Apple concludes Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) – June 14

The WWDC provides the company with a chance to announce new products, software updates, and company policies or initiatives. This year’s meeting concentrated on artificial intelligence. Apple joined other companies with the announcement of its AI model, Apple Intelligence. Read more.

Looking Ahead

Ukraine Hosts Summit for Peace – June 15-16

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy invited global leaders to Switzerland to discuss how to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Russia has not been invited to the summit, which comes days after Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed an openness to a ceasefire under certain conditions. China has also not been invited to participate, amid their continued support of Russia during the war. Read More.

Boeing CEO to testify before Senate- June 18

Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun will testify before the US Senate panel, addressing issues raised by the U.S. Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations after incidents with the 737 MAX, including two fatal crashes and a door panel blowout. The hearing will focus on safety concerns and may influence the U.S. Department of Justice’s decision on charges related to a $2.5 billion settlement. Read more. 

14th BRICS Summit to be held in Beijing – June 22

Chinese President Xi Jingping will host the virtual BRICS summit in Beijing next week, with a focus on “a new era for global development’’. BRICS leaders and emerging markets will likely discuss the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. Read More.