Geopolitics newsletter | Mar. 4 – 10
RADAR SWEEP
Geopolitics Newsletter Mar. 4 – 10, 2024
India Opened New Naval Base near the Maldives
On March 6 India opened a new naval base on the Lakshwadeep Islands called INS Jatayu, about 130 km north of the Maldives. It is the second naval base in the island chain alongside INS Dweeprakshak. The base is intended to counter setbacks in India’s relationship with the Maldives. Maldives’ recently elected president Mohamed Muizzu signed a defense assistance agreement with Beijing, signaling an end to the country’s historic pro-India alignment. Muizzu ordered 89 Indian soldiers to leave the island nation this week, with a full Indian withdrawal planned for May 10.
The opening of the Jatayu base shows Delhi’s desire to protect its international shipping interests in the region, with multiple lanes running through the Indian Ocean. Despite recent setbacks, Delhi remains a key player through its financial aid and investment in the Maldives—part of its neighborhood first policy. With competition between China and India intensifying in Southeast Asia, countries such as the Maldives will face increasing pressure to choose a definitive side. Read more
Indo-Pacific
China’s top legislative body opens a new session – Mar. 5
The National People’s Conference (NPC) is China’s legislative body containing 3000 members. China set a new target of economic growth of 5% for this year. Read More
Japan and India conclude Dharma Guardian joint military exercise — Mar. 9
The exercise was held in Rajasthan, an Indian state bordering Pakistan. The drills are designed to develop semi-urban warfare capabilities. Read more
Pakistan holds presidential elections- Mar. 9
Former President Asif Ali Zardari was successful in the indirect elections held by Pakistan’s parliament and its four provincial assemblies. Zardari is expected to revive strained relations with China. Read more
Diplomacy
US State Department presents courage award to Cuban politician dissident in absentia – Mar. 4
The International Women of Courage Award was presented in absentia to Marta Beatriz Roque Cabello. The move could signal future Biden policies related to Cuba, but seems unlikely to impact relations. Read More
Lavrov holds talks with Nigerian counterpart in Moscow – Mar. 6
Talks centered around Nigerian interest in Russian nuclear power, as well as interest in joining BRICS. Russia is seeking to boost its reputation in the Global South and build its resume against China as a major trading partner in Africa, despite its smaller economy – Read More
Estonian parliamentary group concludes visit to Taiwan – Mar. 8
The five-day visit focused primarily on boosting bilateral ties between the two countries. Closer relations between the two countries will likely lead to countermeasures from China levied toward Estonia. Read More
Hungarian PM Orban meets with Trump in Florida – Mar. 8
Orban has been a longtime supporter of Trump and has held close ties with Russia since well before the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The visit could be an early signal of what a Trump presidency would mean for the future of Ukraine. Read More
National Security
France hosts AsterX 2024 military-space Conference – Mar. 4
The event is devoted to strengthening cooperation of attendees through solving fictional geopolitical space warfare scenarios and building capacity to oppose possible future dangers. This conference is meant to foster increased cooperation in cyber defense and strategic partnerships to counter emerging threats in the global space race, particularly from Russia, China, and North Korea. Read more
Sweden officially joins NATO – Mar. 7
Hungary approved Sweden’s NATO accession after a delay. In the short term, the approval may ease pressure on Budapest to conform to Western foreign policy stances. At the same time, Hungary might lose its voting rights and veto power in the EU due to rule of law concerns. Read more
Politics & Economics
US President Biden delivers 2024 State of the Union – Mar. 6
The speech follows the Super Tuesday primaries, where Joe Biden and former U.S. President Donald Trump emerged as the main candidates for the upcoming general election. The address served an important step for President Biden, as his approval ratings are down. It presented an opportunity for him to showcase his accomplishments in office and address concerns regarding his age. Read more
Polish farmers hold protest in Warsaw – Mar. 6
Farmers continue to demand the halt of Ukrainian agricultural imports into Poland. The blockades of transportation routes at the border with Ukraine by Polish farmers tested diplomatic relations between the countries—Poland had been one of Ukraine’s strongest backers when the war started. .Ukraine may take retaliatory measures, such as imposing an embargo on certain Polish products. Read more
Colombia publishes inflation data – Mar. 6
Colombia has long had a high inflation rate relative to its Latin American neighbors, primarily because of widespread economic slack that resulted in the Colombian peso depreciating against the US dollar. The inflation rate is still significantly lower than last year’s data. Read more
European Central Bank makes rate decision – Mar. 6
The ECB kept interest rates on hold; however the rates have risen significantly, climbing from 0.5 percent in July 2022 to 4.5 percent in September 2023, in response to inflation resulting from post-COVID and Ukraine War impacts. Despite reaching a peak of 10.6% in October 2022, inflation decreased to 2.6% last month, although it remains elevated compared to pre-COVID levels. Read more
The Week Ahead
Russia to hold presidential elections — Mar. 15- 17
Vladimir Putin will almost certainly win, given the absence of any independent challengers. Read more [External]
Biden expected to present US budget plan — Mar. 11
The election-year plan faces uncertain prospects amid existing standoffs over aid to Ukraine and funding for immigration authorities Read More [External]
Eurogroup to meet — Mar. 11
Eurozone finance ministers are expected to discuss fiscal policy for 2025 amid challenges such as inflation and the war in Ukraine. Read more [External]
EC President Charles Michel to visit Berlin, meet Scholz — Mar. 15
The two are expected to discuss preparations for the next European Council meeting held on the 21st and 22nd of March. Read more [External]
Contributions by: Cian Muenster , Viktoriia Skoropadska and Colin Blais
