Photo: Sonia Sevilla

Iran today ends the Ten-Day Dawn ceremony marking the 44th anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

The nation-wide celebration marks the return of Ayatollah Khomeini to Iran following mass protests against the Pahlavi dynasty, leading to the foundation of the Islamic Republic of Iran. President Raisi and sitting Ayatollah Khamenei marked the event by giving speeches and visiting the mausoleum of Khomeini. Pardons were also issued to thousands of prisoners.

This year’s anniversary comes amidst a new wave of protests in Iran against the religious regime. Sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini at the hands of the morality police, national protests have continued since September 2022. The regime has responded with harsh crackdowns, killing hundreds, and arresting thousands to end demonstrations.

Expect Tehran to maintain control in the short-term. Nevertheless, while protests have quieted from their peak in 2022, the public sentiment to renew demonstrations for regime change seems undeterred. Should more protestors be executed or die in prison, it is likely strong civil resistance will resume with a new rallying cry.

Ayatollah Khamenei’s regime is still unlikely to be overthrown in the medium-term. Instead, protestors will likely continue to receive concessions, dousing overall rhetoric against Iran’s strict Islamic governance.