Photo: Carol Von Canon

The ban on domestic sales of Ukrainian agricultural products is set to expire today.

The European Commission extended the ban on tariff-free imports of Ukrainian grain several months ago, despite objections from Kyiv. The bans applied to the transit of Ukrainian cereals going through several Eastern European countries including Poland. The influx of Ukrainian grain undercut  prices in Eastern Europe and enraged  local farmers.

It remains uncertain whether the Commission will let the ban lapse or extend it further, though Poland has insisted it will take the unilateral decision to keep its border closed no matter what the EU decides. This move would violate the bloc’s common trade rules.

The issue of inexpensive Ukrainian products flooding the Polish market as a consequence of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine appears to have created a debate ahead of Poland’s national elections in October. The expiration of the ban could have political consequences for Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki’s Law and Justice (PiS) party, which has seized the issue as one of its key campaign slogans. However, should Poland disregard the EU’s decision to end the ban, Ukraine has said it would turn to WTO arbitration to get compensation for Poland’s violation of trade law.