Estonia will hold elections for its parliament, the Riigikogu, today – Photo: Pavel Golovkin/Associated Press

Estonia will hold elections today for all 101 seats in their parliament, the Riigikogu.

Prime Minister Kaja Kallas’ center-right liberal Reform Party holds 34 seats. Polling at 28%, it looks set to again capture the largest vote share. However, Kallas’ coalition partners—the center-left Social Democrats and national conservative Isamaa party—poll at around 10% and 8%, respectively, running the risk of failing to hit the 5% vote threshold required for parliamentary representation.

Estonia is one of Ukraine’s staunchest supporters under Kallas, despite the country’s sizable Russian-speaking minority. The far-right populist nationalist EKRE Party has cautiously courted their vote, criticizing Kallas’ decision to supply Ukraine with weapons as damaging to Estonian sovereignty. EKRE currently polls second at 17%.

While Kallas’ Reform Party is likely to win the largest vote share, its coalition options are limited should Isamaa and the Social Democrats fail to hold their seats. Reform could relink with the populist Centre Party, which Kallas expelled from a previous coalition in June 2022. Alternatively, it could unite with Estonia 200, which has no national representation but polls at 14%.

Still, Reform also risks being excluded from power should the Centre Party opt for a coalition with EKRE. In this scenario, Estonia’s support of Ukraine would likely soften.