Guaido to lead march in Caracas calling for Venezuela’s military to desert Maduro

Venezuelan Opposition Leader Juan Guaido will head a ‘grand march’ in Caracas today, calling for army assistance in toppling President Nicolas Maduro’s regime.

Early on Tuesday morning local time, Mr Guaido appeared on the streets of Caracas surrounded by men in military uniform calling for the “final phase” in the push to oust Maduro. Venezuela’s government subsequently confirmed that a small group of “military traitors” were being confronted by the government but that the armed forces remain “firmly in defence” of the Maduro government.

Attempts to pressure Maduro’s resignation have stalled in the past, primarily because he continues to command the loyalty of senior military officials. Today’s march aims to target support from Maduro’s top brass but is unlikely to have an immediate impact.

While US and Colombian officials have continued to state that “all options are on the table”, an external military intervention is highly unlikely given the risks of getting entangled in an intractable conflict. Russian and Chinese support for Maduro also act as a deterrent for direct military involvement. Instead, Guaido is likely to continue targeting the lower ranks in the military, who have become unsatisfied with Maduro due to the ongoing economic crisis. By focusing his efforts on the military, Guaido could reach a tipping point by removing the one pillar of government keeping Maduro in control.