Northern Cyprus will hold parliamentary elections

The Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) will hold snap parliamentary elections today, following former Prime Minister Ersan Saner’s resignation in October 2021.

Saner’s government resigned after losing its majority in the TRNC’s parliament, leading to today’s vote. Last November, after the government’s resignation, the TRNC’s pro-Erdogan/pro-partition President Ersin Tatar approved a caretaker government, installing Faiz Sucuoglu as prime minister.

As President Tatar has consolidated a politically likeminded pro-Erdogan government, expect today’s snap elections return a result favorable for interim Prime Minister Faiz Sucuoglu and his coalition, despite previous accusations against Sucuoglu for vote-rigging after Saner’s resignation.

High inflation rates resulting from the TRNC’s economic dependence on Turkey led thousands of Turkish Cypriots to protest ahead of today’s elections, responding to the economic crisis with calls for reunification in Cyprus. If Sucuoglu is confirmed, his government will likely pull the TRNC further away from any prospect for reunification in the medium- to long-term, creating further tension and unrest between the TRNC government and Turkish Cypriots if Turkey’s economic crisis continues to worsen. As such, expect the TRNC’s geostrategic importance and natural gas abundance to prompt Turkey to keep the TRNC under its political watch.