Photo: Colombo Plan Staff College

Sri Lanka will celebrate its 75^th Independence Day anniversary today.

The celebrations will involve cultural ceremonies and parades by the armed forces. Foreign ministers from the other South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation nations – Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal and Pakistan – have also been invited to attend.

Sri Lanka has taken on new geopolitical importance in Indo-Pacific politics just as it is roiled in domestic difficulties. Financial struggles brought by COVID-19 sparked mass protests last spring that ousted President Gotabaya Rajapaksa from office. Since then, India and China have both moved to strengthen relations with Sri Lanka to increase control over key Indian Ocean trade routes.

Sri Lanka will likely remain in a precarious domestic position in the short-term. While tourism and foreign loans are helping the economy, inflation remains high and the current administration has little concrete plans to fix underlying economic instability. On the foreign policy front, however, it appears likely Colombo will tilt towards New Delhi given recent increased economic and military cooperation between the two countries. Therefore, it is likely that Sri Lanka will continue to spurn Chinese overtures and use increased reliance on India to drive further economic recovery.