Photo:SUSANA VERA | REUTERS

Turkey will release its January industrial production figures today.

Production is expected to have expanded 2.45% year on year according to a recent Reuters poll. This follows months of contraction and is a far slower growth rate than previously recorded.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has made economic growth a centerpiece of his administration. He essentially levies full control over monetary policy and has used this to slash interest rates to promote growth despite continued ballooning inflation. This financial mismanagement has sparked public discontent as cost-of-living continues to skyrocket, fueling the opposition coalition ahead of May’s presidential elections.

Expect positive industrial production growth for January. These numbers are likely to decrease for February following the devastating earthquakes that struck the country’s south. Instead, a lethargic earthquake response combined with rapid inflation is likely to boost opposition support. Nevertheless, recent division in the opposition coalition may split the anti-Erdogan vote, giving a boost to the long-running incumbent.

Should opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu win the election, he is expected to reverse nearly all of Erdogan’s policies.  This would decrease presidential power by moving the political system back to an inclusive parliamentary system, bolstering Western alliances, and raising interest rates to counter inflation.