Geopolitics newsletter | Mar. 11 – 17
RADAR SWEEP
Geopolitics Newsletter Mar. 11 – 17, 2024
Biden draws red line for Israel-Hamas conflict – Mar. 10
US President Joe Biden warned Israel about its current conduct in the Israel-Hamas war on March 11.
Addressing MSNBC reporters, Biden warned that an Israeli Defense Force (IDF) assault on the Gazan city of Rafah similar to the ones they conducted on Gaza City and Khan Yunis, would trigger a break in US-Israeli relations. Insiders from within the Biden administration have said that Biden has offered an alternative strategy to the Israelis that emphasizes decapitation strikes on Hamas’ leadership and greater consideration for civilian casualties and infrastructure damage.
Israel’s war has caused widespread death and destruction in Gaza, with over 31,200 Palestinians dead and more than half of the territory destroyed. Biden has continued to support Israel diplomatically and militarily. The US has twice vetoed UN Security Council resolutions to condemn Israel’s war conduct and refused to suspend military aid to Israel. Meanwhile, Biden’s demands that the IDF show restraint have been repeatedly disregarded by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has stated that he will not bend to international pressure to change Israel’s war conduct.
As Biden has to fend off accusations of weakness, his claims of a red line are likely genuine. Biden’s handling of the conflict up to this point has damaged his political standing domestically and internationally. US Muslims in critical swing states such as Minnesota and Michigan have vowed not to vote for him in the next presidential election unless he stops supporting Israel. This vow has trickled over into adjacent voter demographics such as youth and progressive voters. However, Biden has also been criticized by Republicans and some prominent? Jewish Americans that he is not doing enough to support Israel, damaging him in states like New York and New Jersey. These criticisms have contributed to Biden’s poor standing in US presidential polls, which currently have him neck-and-neck with Republican nominee Donald Trump.
Indo-Pacific Geopolitics
Labor-management wage talks concluded in Japan – Mar. 13
Japan’s biggest companies agreed to raise wages by 5.28% for 2024. This is the biggest pay increase in 33 years and comes as the country could soon end 8 years of negative interest rates. Read more
China expanded visa-free entry for Europeans – Mar. 14
A resolution permitting visa-free entry to China for citizens of six European countries including Austria, Ireland, and Switzerland came into effect. Citizens from listed countries will be allowed to stay for up to 15 days without a visa. The move is aimed at increasing foreign investment and bolstering the tourism sector. Read more
Japan and Russia negotiated fishing rights – Mar. 14
Japan and Russia concluded negotiations on bilateral fishing quotas at the 40th gathering of the Japan-Russia Fisheries Committee (JRFC). Last year’s quotas were reduced by 33% due to frosty relations between the two countries stemming from a dispute over the Kuril Islands. Quotas are expected to remain reduced as Japan and Russia seek to reduce reliance on each other’s Economic Exclusion Zones (EEZ). Read more
China, Iran, and Russia held joint naval drills in the Gulf of Oman – Mar. 15
China, Iran, and Russia concluded their Security Belt 2024 joint maritime naval drill on March 15. The drills came as the region is struggling with Houthi attacks on international shipping disrupting global trade networks. Read more
Diplomacy
US President Biden hosted the Polish president and PM – Mar. 12
US President Joe Biden hosted Polish President Andrzej Duda and Prime Minister Donald Tusk on March 12. The meeting commemorated Poland’s 25th anniversary in NATO, and aimed to reassure the eastern European country of American security commitments to the region amid increased fears of Russian aggression and stalled Ukraine aid. Read more
G7 held ministerial-level conference on industry and technology – Mar. 13
A series of ministerial meetings on industry and technology were held in Italy this week, as G7 countries seek to address concerns regarding AI and better regulating technology. The attending ministers also discussed how to strengthen data protection. Read more
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz received EU Council President Charles Michel – Mar. 15
President of the EU Council Charles Michel met German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Germany to prepare for the upcoming European Council summit in Brussels and to discuss issues of particular importance to the EU, such as supporting Ukraine. Read more
Politics and Society
Texas responded to the federal government’s request to block immigration law – Mar. 11
The US state of Texas responded to the Biden administration’s request to freeze the implementation of a new Texas immigration law known as Senate Bill 4. The proposed bill would give Texas state officials the power to remove noncitizens, sparking debates about whether it would undermine federal authority on immigration policy. Read more
Rwandan Court ruled on eligibility of Kagame challenger – Mar. 13
A Rwandan court decided on the eligibility of Frank Habineza to run in the country’s July presidential elections. Whether or not Habineza is permitted to run, Kagame is likely to win another term. Read more
Croatia dissolved Parliament ahead of general elections – Mar. 14
Croatia’s parliament was dissolved ahead of elections slated for this spring. The center-right Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) currently maintains its first-place position. Read more
The Week Ahead
EU foreign ministers to meet in Belgium – Mar. 18
EU foreign ministers will meet in Belgium on 18 March to discuss the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East and the deteriorating human rights in Belarus. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba will also attend via videoconference. Read more
IMF talks conclude in Pakistan – Mar. 18
IMF staffers will conclude talks with Pakistani representatives from the Federal Reserve, State Bank, and ministries of finance, energy, and petroleum. The Pakistani government is requesting a new and longer loan program to foster macroeconomic stability in the volatile country. Read more
Gambia holds a vote to lift the ban on female genital mutilation – Mar. 18
Gambia’s parliament will vote on whether to lift the ban on female genital mutilation today. The practice was initially banned in 2015, but the largely Muslim country is now questioning the ban’s validity on religious grounds. Read more
NATO Secretary General concludes Caucasus trip – Mar. 19
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will conclude his trip to Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia on March 19. He will meet with the Azerbaijani and Georgian presidents, as well as the Armenia ministers of defense and foreign affairs, to discuss security issues in the region. Read more
