Geopolitics newsletter | Feb. 12 – 19
RADAR SWEEP
Geopolitics Newsletter Feb. 12 – 19 2024
Munich Security Conference marks 60th anniversary
World leaders gather in Munich every year for discussions on current security and defense policy issues. Key figures at the 2024 event included German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, US Vice President Kamala Harris, Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh, and Israeli President Isaac Herzog.
The conference took place amid an increasingly volatile security environment, with the war in Ukraine becoming a protracted war and the outbreak of the war in Gaza in October 2023. The conference was an opportunity to discuss these two major conflicts alongside other issues such as food security and the stability of the Middle East which have been majorly impacted by both conflicts. Notably, the role of the US in supporting Ukraine is being called into question, with former President Donald Trump promising to halt all aid to the country if elected, as well as threatening to renege on NATO’s collective defense. Notably, only two Republican senators attended this year’s event. European countries appear to be acting to fill the gap left by a potential end in US support for Ukraine with Germany and Ukraine signing a bilateral security agreement. Ukraine also signed a similar agreement with France.
European countries will be unable to fully cover shortfalls in US aid in the short term but have made commitments to scale up ammunition production and defense industry capabilities. Doing so may enable them to fill this role in the longer term. Calls for greater defense capabilities in Europe may also see a shift towards European strategic autonomy. Read more
Indo-Pacific Geopolitics
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in Abu Dhabi to inaugurate a Hindu temple – Feb. 13
The BAPS Hindu Mandir temple is the first of its kind in Abu Dhabi and the largest in the UAE. Modi’s presence at the opening was both a component of his pre-election campaign strategy and a way of strengthening UAE-Indian cultural ties. Read more
Prabowo Subianto wins Indonesian presidential election – Feb. 14
Formerly a lieutenant general in the Indonesian armed forces and the current defense minister, Subianto will take office in October as the country’s next president. He will replace Joko Widodo, who has been in power since late 2014. Subianto is expected to continue the incumbent`s economic ties with China and take a harsher stance on law-and-order issues. Read more
Pakistan politician gives up the seat he says was rigged for his win – Feb. 15
Pakistani politician Hafiz Naeem ur Rehman, who secured a seat in recent national elections has given it up, stating that the vote was manipulated in his favor. Pakistan is going through an election crisis marked by allegations of widespread voting fraud and interference. Read more [External]
Japan slips into a recession – Feb. 15
Japan has entered a recession, as its economy shrank for two quarters in a row. The connected devaluation of the yen could however contribute to Japan’s economic recovery by making its exports more competitive. Read more [External]
Diplomacy
Biden hosts King Abdullah II at the White House – Feb. 12
King Abdullah II of Jordan is the first leader from an Arab country to visit the White House. The visit comes in the aftermath of a drone strike targeting a minor American base in Jordan, resulting in the deaths of three US Army personnel. Read more
Putin’s postpones visit to Turkiye – Feb. 12
Turkiye and Russia have extensive bilateral economic ties, particularly in tourism, energy, and agriculture. It’s unclear why the visit didn’t take place; it would have marked Putin’s first visit to a NATO country since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Read more
EU-Armenia Partnership Council held – Feb. 13
Armenia and the EU continue to bolster their cooperation and integration, particularly within the framework of the EU-Armenia Comprehensive Enhanced Partnership Agreement (CEPA). Recently, Armenia has leaned towards collaboration with the EU following Russia’s lack of assistance to Armenia in its war against Azerbaijan. Read more
Brazil’s Lula attends African Union (AU) summit – Feb. 17
Lula is strengthening ties with African countries, as evidenced by the recent signing of an agreement with Egypt to facilitate meat exports from Brazil, as well as the conclusion of memorandums of understanding in tourism, health, and agriculture with Angola in August 2023. Read more
National Security
US hosts meeting of Ukraine defense contact group – Feb. 14
The Rammstein group has coordinated military assistance to Ukraine since Russia’s invasion. Due to internal disagreements within the US Congress over various budgetary matters, the US did not commit to additional assistance at the previous meeting in January, prompting the EU to assume greater responsibility for future aid to Ukraine. Read more
NATO defense ministers hold meeting – Feb. 15
NATO is in the process of strengthening its defensive fleet by deploying an additional 1,000 Patriot air defense missiles. It is provoked by Russia drawing closer to China attempting to salvage its economic position amidst sanctions. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg emphasized the importance of maintaining coordinated assistance to Ukraine in its ongoing war against Russia. Read more
Germany, Ukraine sign security agreement – Feb. 16
The agreement is a part of a broader network of bilateral commitments aimed at enhancing Ukraine’s defense capabilities against Russian aggression by bolstering its armed forces and overall security. Last year, the G7 group signed a joint declaration committing to establish “long-term security arrangements” with Ukraine. Read more
Politics and Society
Greek parliament passes law to legalize same-sex marriage – Feb. 15
Conservative Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis overcame dissenting voices from within his own party, having relied on opposition votes to pass the bill. A progressive shift from Mitsotakis could see his party gain more support but could equally disappoint his ruling New Democracy Party`s conservative base. Read more
US launches first moon mission in 50 years – Feb. 15
If successful, the “Odysseus,” launched with the SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket would represent the first private sector moon landing and first surface moon landing since the Apollo missions. An increased emphasis on space is likely in great-power competition between China and the United States. Read more
Alexei Navalny dies in Russian prison – Feb. 16
Navalny was considered an opposition leader to President Vladimir Putin. He was imprisoned since 2021, when he returned to Russia after medical treatment of a poisoning attempt. His death could lead to increased domestic uproar amid Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine. Read More [External]
The Week Ahead
EU-Georgia Association Council to meet – Feb. 20
On the agenda is Georgia`s potential EU accession following the country receiving candidate status last year Read more [External]
US and EU likely to announce anniversary sanctions packages as the war in Ukraine hits the two-year mark – Feb. 24
Much of the focus of potential sanctions may be on sanctions evasion and how to support Ukraine in a prolonged war with Russia Read More [External]
Cambodia to hold senate elections – Feb. 25
The ruling Cambodian People’s Party is expected to hold its overwhelming majority in the body, cementing its role as a rubber stamp in the one-party state. Read more [External]
Contributions by: Cian Muenster and Viktoriia Skoropadska
