18th Asian Regional Forum Security Conference to begin
Brunei Darussalam will virtually host the 18th Security Policy Conference of the Asian Regional Forum today.
The Forum is focused on maintaining regional peace and stability. The conference takes place amidst mounting tension surrounding Myanmar’s junta to comply with the five-point consensus drawn up in April.
Expect ASEAN’s chair, the Bruneian Foreign Minister II Dato Erywan, to finally appoint a special envoy to Myanmar to help initiate dialogue among the concerned parties. Possible candidates to appoint as the envoy include former Indonesian Foreign Minister Hassan Wirajuda and former Singaporean Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong. If Myanmar accepts the envoy’s entry into the country, expect him to pave the way for the delivery of humanitarian assistance, including food, social workers and monetary aid. Giving ASEAN’s commitment to non-interference, it is unlikely that it will move swiftly in retaliation. Instead, expect them to sanction the junta with trade embargos, refuse any further diplomatic contact with it, or even suspend Myanmar as a member.
In the short term, if the situation continues to escalate, expect Washington and the UN to pressure to freeze Myanmar junta’s external financial lifelines in Singaporean, Thai and Malaysian banks, which are well-known homes for Myanmar military money.
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