Russia’s flight ban to 13 domestic airports in the vicinity of Ukraine is set to expire today pending a possible extension.
The ban, which was initially implemented at the beginning of Russia´s war with Ukraine, was extended several times because of safety concerns. of a quick victory. While the majority of the cities affected by the ban remain largely unaffected by the war, Ukraine´s counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region placed Belgorod in striking distance of Ukrainian forces—which has resulted in several attacks.
Ultimately, the duration of the ban will likely depend on Russia’s ability to prevent disruptions in nearby regions and is unlikely to expire today. Should Ukraine continue to successfully attack targets inside Russia, the ban is likely to be extended due to safety concerns. Another reason to extend the ban is the potential for Russian men to flee conscription using such flights—incentivizing the restriction of overall air traffic within the country.
Cian is a Research Analyst and contributes to both Analysis and the Daily Brief. He specializes in Australian and European geopolitics with a particular interest in the strategic autonomy of the EU.