European Commission expected to release report on EU expansion

The European Commission is expected to release a report on EU enlargement today.

Due to enlargement fatigue and several internal disputes, the enlargement of the bloc has largely stalled since Croatia’s accession in 2013. However, the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war largely revived the issue amid discussions of Ukrainian membership. Ukraine was granted an accelerated path to accession having received candidate status in 2022 and with accession talks scheduled for late 2023. Ukraine’s prospects for joining the EU will depend on its ability to fulfill the accession criteria and overcome potential opposition from more pro-Russian member states such as Hungary and Slovakia.

Ultimately, economic pragmatism from Hungary and Slovakia—two of Ukraine’s neighbors— is likely to push both states to approve Ukraine’s accession. Further complications are thus more probable in meeting the necessary criteria from the EU including cracking down on corruption. The process will also depend heavily on the territorial integrity and economic stability of Ukraine after the current war.