Today marks three years since Myanmar’s military, the Tatmadaw, launched a coup against the civilian government of Aung San Suu Kyi.
The Tatmadaw, under General Min Aung Hlaing, launched the coup after Suu Kyi’s party won a landslide election in 2020, which threatened the military’s dominance over Myanmar’s political system. Since the coup, Myanmar has been in the grip of a civil war, with rival ethnic and regional militias fighting the national military. Many of these armed groups have formed alliances under the banner of the old civilian government.
Despite the dominant role over Myanmar that the Tatmadaw have held the junta has faced many defeats against numerous guerilla armies across the country. In the Shahn state last October, an alliance of opposition groups seized Tatmadaw military assets and took control over many strategic Chinese border crossings as well as key roads. This has threatened to cut off the Junta from its key military and economic partner, which has also triggered a wave of desertion from the army.
In the short-term fighting is likely to continue and continue to put pressure on Tatmadaw forces across the country. In the longer-term Chinese mediation may succeed in brokering a political solution.