RADAR SWEEP

Geopolitics Newsletter Feb. 19 – 25, 2024

Japan, Ukraine holds bilateral conference on economic reconstruction – Feb. 19

The first Japan-Ukraine Conference for Promotion of Economic Reconstruction began in Tokyo. At the conference, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida pledged Tokyo’s commitment to Kyiv’s reconstruction. Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal stated the conference marked the start of closer cooperation between Japan and Ukraine.

According to Japanese officials, 300 individuals and 130 companies, such as Kawasaki Heavy Industry and Rakuten Symphony, attended the conference. Additionally, the Japanese and Ukrainian governments signed over 20 cooperative agreements focusing on seven target areas for cooperation including mine removal, improvement of humanitarian conditions, farming, biochemical manufacturing, infrastructure and transportation, among others.

The reconstruction efforts are expected to open up investment and business opportunities for Japanese companies, and aid Ukraine in becoming a European digital hub with its information and cybersecurity expertise. Kishida also announced the opening of a new government trade office in Kyiv.

At the conference, Japan pledged $106 million in new aid for Ukraine to fund demining and other reconstruction projects, focusing on the energy and transportation sectors. Japan’s total contribution, however, of $12.1 billion over the last two years is much smaller than the $111 billion that the United States and other Western nations have provided to Ukraine. As the Russia-Ukraine conflict drags on, the Japanese public has become less keen on providing further aid to Ukraine. Political impediments in Washington have stalled an aid package for Ukraine and European countries have struggled to fill in the gaps. Although Ukraine has put pressure on allies to provide more military equipment and ammunition, Japan’s contribution has been restricted to non-lethal support like body armor, helmets and small consumer drones, as part of Japan’s pacifist policy, which prevents the use of force against other nations. In January, Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa pledged to provide Ukraine with a drone detection system as part of a $37 million contribution to a NATO fund as air defense becomes crucial for Ukraine.

Despite domestic reservations, Japan is likely to continue with reconstruction efforts and to provide support for Ukraine, largely driven by national security concerns. Tokyo has repeatedly objected to Russia’s invasion, viewing it as a one-sided change of the status quo. Japan is also concerned about China’s increasingly assertive military actions in the region, especially in regard to Taiwan. These concerns are further exacerbated by the potential return of former US President Donald Trump to power, which would signal a return to isolationist foreign policy in the US. China may perceive the return of Trump, as an opportunity to pursue further aggressive actions against Taiwan, posing a major threat to Japanese security interests. Read more

Indo-Pacific Geopolitics

US Special Envoy on North Korea concludes East Asia trip – Feb. 21

Julie Turner, the US Special Envoy for North Korean Human Rights Issues, concluded a trip to East Asia today. Turner met with Japanese and South Korean officials and civil rights activists to discuss promoting human rights for North Korean expats. Read more

Chairman of US Congressional Committee on CCP arrives in Taiwan – Feb. 21

A delegation from the US House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) arrived in Taiwan following the election of William Lai Ching-te, a member of the pro-sovereignty Democratic Progressive Party in Taiwan. The visit is expected to deepen tensions between Washington and Beijing. Read more

The Asian Parliamentary Assembly concludes its 14th plenary session – Feb. 24

The 14th Plenary session of the Asian Parliamentary Assembly (APA) was held in Baku, Azerbaijan and lasted three days. It focused on Azerbaijan’s upcoming chairmanship of the organization, a well as regional cooperation and sustainable development. Read more

Defense, Security, and Diplomacy

EU economic and finance ministers met in Belgium – Feb. 21

EU finance and economic ministers held an informal three-day meeting to discuss the EU’s global competitiveness. European economies have struggled to restart growth after the pandemic, and they continue to face myriad difficulties hampering short to medium-term development. Read more

Second anniversary of Russian invasion of Ukraine – Feb. 24

February 24 marked the two-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The date comes as continued American support for Ukraine remains deadlocked in Congress, threatening Ukraine’s defense. Read more

Politics and Society

Spanish farmers protested before agricultural ministry – Feb. 21

Spain’s agricultural unions, including UPA and ASAJA held a major protest in front of Spain’s agriculture ministry. This comes as a continuation of broader farmers’ protests across Europe. Farmers across Europe have protested in response to the European Union’s Green Deal, which imposes strict environmental regulations on the farming industry. Read more

Bundestag legalized cannabis – Feb. 22

The Bundestag passed a law that legalized cannabis in Germany. The bill permits the private cultivation of cannabis and the controlled distribution of cannabis by cultivation associations. Germany now is the third European Union member state to legalize recreational cannabis. Read more

The Week Ahead

World Trade Organization to hold ministerial conference in Dubai – Feb 26

The 13th WTO ministerial conference will begin in Dubai on February 26. The three-day event will focus on global development, environmental investment and dispute procedure reforms as members discuss the future of the organization. Read more

Russia to host PLO and Hamas for talks – Feb 26

Moscow will host unity talks between the Palestinian Authority’s PLO and Hamas starting February 26. The PLO has expressed interest in incorporating Hamas’ political wing into a unified Palestinian government, however the two sides disagree on fundamental issues, and Western nations refuse to support a role for Hamas in a post-war Palestinian government. Read more

55th UN Human Rights Council Session to begin in Switzerland – Feb 26

The UN’s Human Rights Council will begin its 55th session on February 26. Members will discuss support rights for religious and racial minorities and persons with disabilities. There will also be special focus on the humanitarian situation in Gaza. Read more

Palestinians to host “Day of Rage” Protest against Israel – Feb 27

Palestinians are expected to hold mass protests against Israeli operations in Gaza and detentions of Palestinian civilians. These protests come as international pressure mounts on Israel to agree to a humanitarian ceasefire to ease suffering in Gaza. Read more