G7 foreign ministers continue meeting in Capri

The G7 foreign ministers are scheduled to meet today in Capri, Italy to discuss urgent security issues.

Of note in the discussions will be a G7 response to the recent Iranian direct attack on Israel. Iran is messaging the attack as a response to an alleged Israeli strike on its consulate in Syria two weeks ago. Notably, before the attack Iran provided advanced notice to Israel and neighboring countries, raising questions about the purpose of this military operation. The day after the attack on Israel, the G7 issued a joint statement, unanimously condemning Iran for the destabilizing attack and pledging to consolidate efforts to prevent the intensification of the conflict. European leaders are concerned that Israel’s retaliation would escalate regional tensions and provide a pretext for further, more severe attacks by Iran or regional war.

De-escalation negotiations between the countries may be considerably difficult. Economically, Iran is already under extensive international sanctions. Also, Iran may not be sensitive to diplomatic pressure, as it holds a trump card up its sleeve – its nuclear threshold status. However, should the international community opt for a policy of total isolation of Iran, they may also discourage the potential for future arms control negotiations. Furthermore, Netanyahu’s recent radical defense policy could result in a response that could deprive the Middle East of peace for a long time. At the same time, a regional conflict is unlikely to prompt Iran to assemble its first nuclear bomb since the position of a threshold state provides an additional lever in diplomatic negotiations with the West.