12th anniversary of Xi Jinping becoming General Secretary of CCP
November 15th 2024 marks the 12th anniversary of Xi’s becoming the General Secretary of Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
Xi’s tenure has significantly reshaped China and the global landscape, However, recent signs indicate a potential shift in power dynamics. In August , U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met with Zhang Youxia, the first-ranked Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), bypassing Xi. Later, Zhang made a high-profile visit to Vietnam, where he was received with honors beyond his rank. These developments, along with recent changes in top military posts, suggest growing tension between Xi and Zhang over control of the armed forces.
In the short term, both sides will struggle for influence over the military. This internal power struggle will likely paralyze the CCP’s central leadership, diverting focus from addressing China’s economic challenges and preparing for the potential return of a Trump administration. While Xi might attempt to broker a truce with Zhang, there remains the risk of escalation, including the possibility of Xi leveraging military action, such as an invasion of Taiwan, to enforce wartime centralization and secure his authority. Given the intensity of political conflicts in China, the outcome of this power struggle is expected to become clearer within the next year.
