France, Poland expected to sign bilateral defense agreement

French President Emmanuel Macron and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk will sign a ‘friendship treaty‘ today in Nancy, France.

In an effort to accelerate European economic and military security, the agreement will deepen defense ties and trade partnerships between Warsaw and Paris. In addition to its security clauses, the treaty encompasses the development of joint military exercises and increased military arms sales to Poland. The agreement is the first ‘premium treaty’ France has signed with a non-neighboring country. Going forward, French ambassador to Poland Étienne de Poncins has committed to strengthening Franco-Polish relations as a key European partner akin to Germany, Spain, and Italy. On the other hand, Polish President Andrzej Duda has expressed a desire for protection under France’s nuclear umbrella.

As the treaty signals a common European policy on Russia, the French alliance with Poland indicates Warsaw’s strategic importance in counteracting Russian belligerence. For Warsaw, the treaty embodies an unforeseen partnership with Paris and a pivot away from dependency on Washington. Given France’s reluctance to include Poland under its nuclear umbrella, a nuclear deterrence agreement remains unlikely. However, the pressing threat of Russian aggression has made Macron reconsider France’s deterrence strategies to expand a nuclear umbrella. As this newfound French-Polish alliance will continue to bolster security interests, Paris will continue to lead the continental defense strategy and solidify European unity. However, the question of a prospective French nuclear umbrella will remain at the forefront of Europe’s security dialogue.