Russia’s Baltic Fleet to conduct large-scale drills

Russia’s Baltic Fleet is set to hold large-scale naval drills today in waters off the Kaliningrad Oblast, Russia’s enclave between Poland and Lithuania.

Although these exercises take place in the Baltic Sea, they come at a time of rising tensions on the other side of the continent, in the Black Sea. For Russia, control over the Black Sea provides a launchpad for operations in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean as well as a vehicle for bolstering its influence in the Balkans and Caucasus. With the US distracted by a tense election season, expect Russia to feel emboldened in the short term and ramp up its regional presence.

Russia’s budding energy partnerships with Turkey, Serbia and Bulgaria will serve as further thorns in NATO’s side as Moscow has been seeking exclusive extraction and distribution contracts for its energy giant Gazprom. European NATO members will struggle to wean their dependence on Russian energy, especially with the recent discovery of a vast natural gas field in the Black Sea. Although NATO has scaled back its naval presence due to COVID-19, a heightened military stance as well as the imposition of hard-hitting antitrust regulations against Gazprom is on the cards in the medium-term.

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