ICJ to Discuss Provisional Measures Imposed on Azerbaijan

The International Court of Justice (ICJ) will convene today to review provisional measures it imposed upon Azerbaijan.

Last month, Armenia filed a complaint to the ICJ regarding Azerbaijan’s alleged war crimes during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict of 2020, including ethnic cleansing and destruction of cultural heritage sites. Azerbaijan then responded that it would also submit a mirror complaint regarding Armenia’s alleged violations.

While the ICJ will acutely take Armenia’s complaints into account to determine Azerbaijan’s guilt, Azerbaijan’s mirror complaint—although likely to be approved—in turn, will not be as fruitful due to the lack of Azeri minorities in Nagorno-Karabakh.  Additionally, the court will look over the status of Armenian prisoners of war.

As the ICJ will likely find Armenia’s appeal plausible, it could also acknowledge Armenian political legitimacy in the region. As a result, the ICJ could press to begin a territorial reorganization of Nagorno-Karabakh in the medium-term. In this framework, the Christian heritage sites in the region could be granted special status under Armenia’s purview. In the case of a negative verdict however, Baku’s retaliations against Yerevan could increase. With all things considered, the case will further provoke the rival states, making reconciliation all but unachievable in the long-term.

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