Tom Connolly

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Tom Connolly

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Tom Connolly

Mozambique’s northern insurgency continues to rage
- Africa
- October 18, 2020
Conflicting policies and poor regional coordination are stymying the counter-terrorism strategy.
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The enduring diplomatic struggles of Ethiopia’s dam plan
- Africa
- September 7, 2020
Egypt’s water interests are clashing with Sudan’s agricultural aims and Ethiopia’s energy superpower goals.
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Maputo on the defensive: Mozambique’s insurgency heats up
- Security & Terrorism
- July 15, 2020
Islamist militants have made inroads into the resource-rich but marginalised Cabo Delgado region.
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Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin: a merger of al-Qaeda affiliates
- Security & Terrorism
- April 25, 2020
The al-Qaeda affiliate presents a complex social, economic and security challenge for Sahel nations.
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Boko Haram in Cameroon: compounding security concerns
- Africa
- February 16, 2020
Despite community resistance, the Islamist extremist group has gained a foothold in the security void.
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Armed groups are expanding their presence in Burkina Faso
- Africa
- November 17, 2019
Burkinabe citizens are grappling with the consequences of a recent spike in militant violence.
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Piracy in the Gulf of Guinea: a maritime burden
- Africa
- September 24, 2019
Regional governments will struggle to halt a spike in petro-piracy and kidnap for ransom schemes.
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Al-Shabaab in Kenya: cross-border attacks and recruitment
- Security & Terrorism
- May 28, 2019
The extremist group will remain a threat to Kenya until its conscription tactics are addressed.
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Daesh in the Congo: red herring or Central African Wilayat?
- Africa
- May 5, 2019
Ties between the two fundamentalist groups are concerning but the depth of cooperation is uncertain.
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The Ogossagou massacre: Mali’s ethnic and Islamist divisions
- Africa
- April 9, 2019
Conflict is escalating in the country’s north, which has been riddled with violence since 2012
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Le pouvoir: a rattling of the Algiers gerontocracy
- Middle East
- March 16, 2019
Peaceful protests forced the president’s resignation. But the ruling party will fight to stay in power.
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Kagame and Kigali: Rwanda’s curious rise to Africa’s envy
- Africa
- February 13, 2019
The country’s meteoric rise to regional powerhouse has come at the cost of civil freedoms.
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2019 forecast: deepening political strife in Burundi
- Forecast
- January 7, 2019
Systemic state-led repression leaves little hope for improvement in the new year.
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2019 forecast: Iraq – investment versus insurgency
- Forecast
- December 31, 2018
Iraq’s shaky new coalition government has a fiscal window to address major problems.
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2019 forecast: Somalia – small improvements, big challenges
- Forecast
- December 30, 2018
Local elections will not offset anger over border clashes, insurgencies, and corruption.
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2019 forecast: Ethiopia ushers in a new regional era
- Forecast
- December 30, 2018
Savvy diplomacy should boost the economy but domestic tensions will persist.
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Libya’s hopeful elections: wishful thinking writ large
- Middle East
- November 25, 2018
Entrenched militia and self-interested politicians are majority stumbling blocks to a successful vote.
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Relations in Horn of Africa: a thawing of hostilities
- Africa
- November 5, 2018
The easing of tensions between Eritrea and Ethiopia could be fresh trouble with Djibouti.
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Wilayat Sinai: corroding security and Sisi’s legitimacy
- Middle East
- September 25, 2018
The extremist group is entrenched in the peninsula. It will take more than force to oust them.
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Shifts in the hydropolitical landscape of the Nile Basin
- Africa
- July 12, 2018
Egypt’s historic hegemony over the Nile is being tested by Ethiopia’s extensive dam project.
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