China releases trade balance

China’s General Administration of Customs will today release its trade figures for January and February. China experienced a steadily increasing

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Photo: Agence France Presse/ Getty Images

China’s General Administration of Customs will today release its trade figures for January and February.

China experienced a steadily increasing trade surplus in 2020, ending with a record high surplus of $78.12 billion. Today’s release is expected to reveal a trade surplus decline to $60 billion in the first two months of 2021.

For this period, a general decline in international demand for goods and services caused by countries still recovering economically coupled with China’s nearly one-month-long break for the lunar new year are likely major factors for the trade surplus decline. China has led the world in the production of personal protection equipment and is rapidly expanding its COVID-19 vaccine sales abroad, so expect Beijing to post new record trade surpluses in the coming months. Based on projected economic acceleration out of COVID-19, the International Monetary Fund now predicts China’s economy will grow to be larger than the US economy by 2028, two years ahead of a previously forecast date.

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