France will release its preliminary second quarter GDP figures today. France’s National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE)—the country’s
France will release its preliminary second quarter GDP figures today.
France’s National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE)—the country’s official statistics agency—expects today’s data to mark a 15-20% fall due to pandemic-induced upheaval, calling April “one of the worst months experienced by the French economy in peacetime”. France entered a recession earlier this year for the first time since 2009.
Expect France’s economic performance to remain volatile in the short-term with more robust recovery anticipated in 2021-2022. Alongside Italy and Spain, France was especially hard hit by the pandemic; while the EU’s overall GDP is slated to contract by 8.3% in 2020, French production is expected to recede by 10.6%. Although a historic $868 billion EU recovery fund will cushion the blow, COVID-19 has generated unprecedented economic uncertainty that will take time to dissipate; the lingering risk of a viral resurgence makes it impossible to determine when the French economy will return to normal. Expect the government to postpone contentious labour reforms as it focuses on addressing national recovery; negotiations over highly controversial pension reform have already been deferred to 2021.
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