Turkish President Erdogan visits Azerbaijan

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will arrive in Azerbaijan today to meet with his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev.

During the three-day meeting, Erdogan is expected to attend the grand opening of an airport in Zangilan,—a town that was under heavy fire during the Second Nagorno-Karabakh conflict—and engage in diplomatic talks with Aliyev. Ankara remains as a staunch ally and benefactor of Baku. With that being said, Erdogan’s recent meet up with Armenian President Nikol Pashinyan suggests that he will likely renew his call for Baku to normalize its troublesome relations with Yerevan despite the periodic border skirmishes.

During the short-to medium-term, expect the parties to engage in trilateral talks in matters concerning cross-border confrontations, and move towards the possibility of reopening transportation links. This, however, will come with mild complications. Despite the idea appealing to Yerevan, as it will see Armenia increase its trade volume significantly, Baku will demand Yerevan to adhere to post-war terms—which include the complete Armenian evacuation of occupied regions. Baku’s demands are unlikely to be met by Yerevan, which will all but stall negotiations, making long-term peace in the South Caucuses unlikely.