US Department of Labor to release jobs report on Friday

The US Department of Labor will release non-farm payroll data, a measurement of job growth seen as an indicator of economic strength, for the month of June.

Economists forecast today’s job growth figures will more than double from May’s rate of 75,000. Unemployment will remain around 3.6%, the lowest rate in the decade. In the past, President Donald Trump has tied low unemployment ratings to his administration’s crackdown on border crossings and reestablishment of jobs either previously outsourced or lost to China.

While overall job growth has increased, it has plateaued in industries directly impacted by the trade war. Low labour demand in manufacturing, wholesale trade, retail trade, mining and warehousing as well as slow wage growth are likely to continue. The consumer confidence index is likely to fall as the average cost per household from the trade war is over $500 a month.

There is speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in July, which will likely catalyse investment and spur continued growth. However, trade uncertainty is fueling these cuts and will threaten sustained US expansion until a deal with China is struck.

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