US jobs growth to rebound but economy expected to slow ahead of 2020
The US Labor Department will release its closely-watched jobs report for the month of March today. Economists forecast today’s data will show 170,000 jobs were created in March.
Just 20,000 jobs were created in the US in February—an ‘astonishingly bad’ outcome according to Dutch multinational bank ING, although this can be partly explained by the partial US government shutdown. In contrast, 311,000 jobs were created in January; unemployment also remains at a near-decade-low 3.8%.
Such volatility is reflective of the forces affecting the US economy, where trade tensions, domestic political volatility and a global economic slowdown are beginning to cast a cloud over 18 months of bullish growth figures.
Economic headwinds and a tight labour market are likely to limit job creation in the coming year. A non-government report released on Wednesday showed the private sector added 129,000 jobs in March—short of the 175,000 expected and the lowest rate since September 2017.
Indeed, as the stimulus effect of the Trump administration’s $1.5 trillion tax cuts subsides and global trade tensions over China and Brexit intensify, the world’s largest economy is expected to slow in the coming years. Facing re-election in November 2020, Mr Trump’s economic credentials may well come under closer scrutiny in the coming year.
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