England to relax select COVID-19 restrictions

England is set to ease select COVID-19 lockdown restrictions today.

Stay-at-home orders will be lifted and socially distanced gatherings in groups of up to six, or as two households, will now be permitted. The move follows Prime Minister Boris Johnston’s declaration that there is “absolutely nothing” to stop restriction lifting, despite rising European case numbers. Each phase of lockdown easing is contingent upon England’s vaccination program continuing uninterrupted. Johnson’s handling of the vaccination rollout has buoyed both his own and his Conservative Party’s approval ratings ahead of May’s local elections. Nevertheless, planned EU vaccine export limits risk disrupting the UK’s supply.

Restricted vaccine supplies would undermine the government’s goal of giving every adult their first shot by July. If vaccinations remain steady, cases should not spike. Otherwise, the UK risks a third wave similar to other European states—in Poland, cases are up 35% this week. Such a result would cost lives, while in the political realm it would dent Johnson’s renewed popularity, opening the Conservatives up for losses in May’s elections. Currently, the Conservatives have a six-point lead over the rival Labour Party at 43%, but reversing restriction easement would prove massively unpopular. If vaccinations slow considerably, expect Johnson to delay further targets, including the total lifting of restrictions on June 21.

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