Estonian elections expected to see significant populist gains
Estonians will head to the polls today as the country holds parliamentary elections. Nationalist and Eurosceptic populist parties are expected to make major gains in the legislature.
The ruling, centre-left Estonian Centre Party still leads polls with about 28% of decided voters and remains ahead of the centre-right Reform Group, which was elected to government in the last elections. The main concerns for voters are economic, particularly as strong economic growth has co-existed with widening inequality in the country.
The populist, far-right EKRE Party is well-positioned to capitalise on growing economic discontentment and place second if it can convince a large number of undecided voters to support its Eurosceptic, anti-immigrant message. The Centre Party is pledging an increase in social spending, particularly in education and pensions.
However, it looks likely that Estonia will continue the EU trend of populists gaining seats. Regardless of which mainstream party gains the larger share, they will have to contend with great populist representation in the coming parliamentary term.
While greater populist representation would be unlikely to significantly alter relations with the EU, it would create another headache for Brussels over a potential government that has anti-immigrant and nationalist elements. Additionally, higher representation for EKRE could preclude a shift in the electorate towards far-right parties ahead of European elections.
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