EU to end trade visa-free regime with Ukraine

The European Union has decided not to renew the full suspension of trade duties and quotas for Ukrainian goods, effectively ending the temporary trade visa-free regime enacted in response to Russia’s invasion in 2022.

The measure, initially introduced to support Ukraine’s economy, allowed tariff-free access for most Ukrainian exports to the EU. However, there are rising concerns from EU member states over the impact on local agricultural markets, especially in Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia, have prompted the shift. Some restrictions will be reimposed on sensitive sectors like grain, poultry, and processing industries.

In the short term, the roll-back will impact Ukraine’s exporters, who will face increased costs and reduced competitiveness in the EU market, especially in agriculture, which could strain the country’s wartime economy. Some estimates put losses between US $3 and $3.5 billion.  In the medium term, this could risk social unrest to an already weaken economy and undermine EU solidarity for Ukraine. Long term, the decision highlights challenges in integrating Ukraine into the EU single market amid enlargement ambitions. As one of the world’s largest exporters of wheat and sunflower oil, the suspension of the visa regime could negatively impact western European consumer markets, increase prices of goods and slow the trade in minerals. This shift might push Kyiv to diversify trade partnerships with Asia and the Middle East.