Indonesia holds general election

Indonesia will hold general elections today to elect the President, Vice President, and the People’s Consultative Assembly (MPR). Members of the MPR are to be sworn in on October 1st, whilst the new President and Vice President will take office on October 20th.

Late last year, Indonesia announced three candidates who will look to succeed Joko Widodo; Anies Baswedan from the centre to centre-left Coalition for Change Party, Ganjar Pranowo from the centre-left Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI), and frontrunner and Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto from the right-wing Gerindra party. The latest Roy Morgan poll on the election has Subianto enjoying a 13% lead (46% total) in front of Baswedan, with Gerindra overtaking PDI as the most popular party in the nation at 28%. Subianto’s sustained anchorage to China through economic attitude and his vow to uphold a neutral foreign policy toward Washington and Beijing is proving popular amongst Indonesians.

Should Subianto claim victory in the elections, expect Indonesia to continue utilizing China as a key economic partner, establishing itself as a key actor within Southeast Asian economics. Chinese foreign direct investment into Indonesia, including through the Belt and Road Initiative, will likely continue in the short and long term. Moreover, expect there to be rising tensions between Indonesia and the Western world. Subianto’s law-and-order approach to governance and hardline Islamist themes, alongside his high-profile human rights violations, threaten stability with the West; not dissimilar to Duterte’s rise to power in the Philippines. The alleged democratic decline of Indonesia will likely continue if Subianto prevails.