June non-farm US payrolls to be released
June employment data for the US is set to be released today as the country wrestles with the safety of its staggered economic re-opening.
Last month’s data showed an unexpected surge in hiring with an additional 2.5 million jobs. As jobless claims continue to hover around 20 million, today’s report will either provide evidence of sustained momentum or confirm May’s status as a statistical outlier.
Any positive data released today may not accurately reflect the most recent developments across the country. Southern and western states have seen record spikes in positive COVID-19 cases in recent weeks, forcing governors to pause or backtrack scheduled re-openings. Layoffs are expected to rise as business confidence remains shaky and payroll requirements under the federal Paycheck Protection Program expire.
A strong jobs report should be viewed cautiously, as multiple headwinds threaten a swift short-term economic recovery. Expect regional job markets to experience varying degrees of recovery throughout 2020 if states continue to pursue disparate re-opening plans.
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