NATO defense ministers will convene today in Brussels for a two-day meeting.
Today’s meeting comes amid urgent concerns regarding a Russian invasion of Ukraine, as multiple governments urge their citizens to leave Ukraine. While France and Germany attempted to appeal to Putin through diplomacy, NATO recently took to strengthening its military position in Eastern Europe by deploying 3,000 more US troops.
With the US preparing an additional 8,500 reinforcements and NATO weighing the launch of a new multinational Black Sea battlegroup, expect the meeting to underscore the alliance’s commitment to defending its Eastern European member states from Russian aggression. While the US and UK have refused to fight alongside Ukraine, NATO will look to hinder Russian activity through cyberwarfare measures.
With Russia’s military buildup, an invasion of Ukraine in the short-term appears likely. Expect potential US-EU sanctions to be aimed at major Russian banks, oligarchs and the tech and defense industries rather than more significant targets like Russia’s SWIFT access or oil and gas entities. Should Russia invade, Western military and financial aid for Ukraine may continue, though a quick Russian military victory and Ukrainian refugee crisis and armed insurgency would likely define the post-invasion order.
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Scott is an Analyst at Foreign Brief and works in International Development in Washington DC. His specific interests are geopolitics, regional conflict and governance, and political and economic development, and his geographic focus is Sub-Saharan Africa.