Nord Stream 1 Pipeline to Shut Down for Three Days
The Nord Stream 1 pipeline will close for three days starting today.
The pipeline supplies European countries—most notably Germany—with Russian natural gas. Unlike the previous suspension of services in July, the impending closure is not part of regular maintenance. Therefore, it is likely motivated by Russian attempts to coerce European countries to end their support of Ukraine through the manipulation of gas flows.
However, flows are expected to restart after the three-day period. Previous Russian attempts to cause gas shortages on European countries have largely been unsuccessful with the EU and Germany already meeting their October 1 80% gas storage capacity target—which is estimated to suffice for the winter months of January and February—with the highest demand assuming continued gas deliveries. These realities make it possible that Russia has changed its strategy towards artificially increasing gas prices to cause economic difficulties in Europe and raise as much revenue as possible as it continues its invasion of Ukraine amid western sanctions.
Russia is thus likely to continue with its coercion efforts while maintaining gas supply. The end of gas flows is more probable to come from the European side—should they secure sufficient alternate sources.
