Russia to begin offensive against Ukraine’s Lysychansk
Russia is expected to launch an offensive against Lysychansk, Ukraine today after Ukrainian troops withdrew from neighboring Severodonetsk on Friday.
The two cities straddle opposite sides of the Siverskyi Donets River and until June 24 represented Ukraine’s easternmost free cities. However, the military withdrawal from Severodonetsk allowed Russian forces to seize the city and continue their westward push.
The city’s fall comes as Russia concentrates its efforts on seizing the eastern Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, which have been partially controlled by pro-Russian breakaway states since 2014. Now in the fourth month of the war, Russia’s goals have changed considerably. No longer aiming to topple President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government, Russia is now attempting to seize the country’s Eastern and Southern regions to cut Ukraine off from the sea.
As such, Lysychansk will likely fall in the short term as Russia continues picking off Ukraine’s remaining eastern cities. Doing so will certainly worsen global supply chain issues related to the war, especially for agricultural products as Ukraine struggles to export grain due to Russian blockades. Outgunned 10-to-1, Ukraine has little chance of recapturing its lost territory militarily. Instead, expect Zelensky to focus on accelerating EU membership and protecting Ukraine’s remaining southern cities such as Odesa.
Download the Daily Brief app to stay ahead of geopolitics with daily, short, forward-looking analysis of geopolitical events before they hit the headlines.
