Russian foreign minister to visit Turkey

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will meet with Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu in Antalya today.

The meeting comes less than a week after their respective presidents held a phone call discussing broader bilateral relations, the rollout of the Russian Sputnik V vaccine and the lead up to Syria’s Constitutional Committee meeting in Geneva. Lavrov’s visit to Turkey also comes at a crucial time of regional disputes South Caucasus and the north-western Syrian governorate of Idlib.

Expect the meeting to reveal details of Russia’s upcoming decision on July 10 to either veto or approve the continuation of UN-mandated humanitarian aid to Idlib. If aid continues, Russia can stem the flow of internally displaced refugees fleeing north to Turkey and use that as leverage in Russia’s political interests in the South Caucasus. Both ministers will likely discuss the implementation of a regional alliance between Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Iran and themselves to begin peacebuilding following the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Given Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s recent success in signing a military cooperation pact with Baku, Moscow’s support might be able to sway Turkey into making concessions on its staunch position on the recently re-elected Assad regime and ongoing conflict with Russian-backed Syrian forces.

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