Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny to appear in court
Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny will today appear in court in Moscow for a hearing to determine whether the politician will face imprisonment after a variety of alleged parole violations.
Navalny—an anti-corruption activist who has accused Russian President Vladimir Putin’s government of poisoning him—returned to Moscow from Berlin in mid-January. He was detained upon arrival and charged with failing to appear at a hearing concerning charges against him, which international observers contend are “arbitrary.” His arrest has spawned demonstrations throughout Russia, many drawing in significant percentages of first-time protesters.
Expect the court to sentence Navalny to 3.5 years. His sentencing will likely trigger further domestic protests and subsequent crackdowns by security forces. Passage of laws restricting demonstrations remains equally likely. Putin is unlikely to be removed from office, having retained his internal security forces’ loyalty. Nevertheless, domestic opposition will likely continue, as Navalny, who previously struggled with public engagement, assumes a martyred public status.
Expect actors including the US and EU to coordinate sanctions on Russia’s sovereign debt, while isolating Moscow through the possible abandonment of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. In response, Putin will likely rely on partnerships with Eurasian states and on fluctuating Chinese demand for Russian gas.
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