Scotland to hold parliamentary elections

Scotland will hold parliamentary elections today.

Expect Nicola Sturgeon’s Scottish National Party (SNP) to win a majority in today’s election. Amid Scottish disenchantment over Brexit—with all 32 Scottish council areas voting Remain—Sturgeon and the SNP do not reject the possibility of a second Scottish independence referendum. Eager for a European future, the SNP underscores the importance of the EU to Scotland’s economy—along with the negative impact Brexit is likely to have on it.

Given British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s staunch opposition to a second Scottish independence referendum, any groundbreaking independence developments remain unlikely in the short-term. However, in the event of an SNP victory, a Scottish secession from the UK is possible in the medium-term. Sturgeon pledged a new referendum by 2023 in light of the circumstances brought on by COVID-19, claiming Johnson holds few qualms over a fresh vote over the course of the next few years. Scotland’s future in the UK will likely depend on Brexit’s impact on the UK’s economy. Having rejected independence 55% to 45% in 2014, a robust Brexit induced recession—made worse by COVID 19—could spell a different outcome a second time around.

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