Special Coverage: Assad government collapses in Syria
The Assad regime has fallen in Syria after more than fifty years in power.
Rebel forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist opposition group formed in 2017, have compelled Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to evacuate Syria and seek asylum in Russia. For Syrians, the new, HTS-led government has incited cautious optimism. While a new government under HTS leader Mohammed al-Jolani shows some promise, particularly a pledge to tolerate religious minorities, al-Jolani’s past ties with al-Qaeda have drawn concerns.
The regime change reflects shifting power dynamics in the Middle East. Russia, Iran and its proxies, which supported the Assad regime throughout the civil war, were dealt a significant defeat. Russia has three military bases in Syria, which could be under threat after Assad’s upheaval. Moreover, Iran and its proxies have already been weakened due to the Israel-Hamas conflict, and this regime change threatens to further reduce their influence in the region. Israel has taken an aggressive posture on its border with Syria, moving into the Golan Heights buffer zone, and carrying out hundreds of airstrikes on Syrian military targets. Turkey serves to benefit from the regime change as well, as it aims to return more than three million Syrian refugees to their homeland.
A potential return for Assad appears unlikely, with non-intervention talks with Iran and Russia paving the way for the government to fall, even though Russia granted Assad asylum and Iran recently denounced the coup. Syrian officials from the Assad regime have cooperated in the transition of power so far, with Mohammed al-Bashir taking the role of interim prime minister until March 1.
