Trilateral Contact Group on Donbas to meet today

The Trilateral Contact Group (TCG) on Donbas, composed of Ukraine, Russia and the OSCE, will meet today to raise the issue of introducing a ceasefire over the Orthodox Easter holidays.

Leonid Kravchuk, head of the Ukrainian delegation to the TCG, has stated that Ukraine is committed to a truce, with the aim of allowing families to travel throughout the territory over Easter. Despite the introduction of the Minsk II agreements in 2015 and the announcement of a new ceasefire in July 2020, both sides have committed multiple ceasefire violations and there has been a recent uptick in violence.

Expect the Russian delegation to show little support for an Easter ceasefire, instead continuing to block meaningful political developments. Russia has no political will to move forward with negotiations; instead, it is in Moscow’s interest to secure legal autonomy of the Donbas region and halt Ukraine from developing a stronger relationship with western Europe. Even if a temporary ceasefire can be signed, expect tensions to restart and endure until an agreement can be reached on the withdrawal of Russian forces in eastern Ukraine and along their mutual border.

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