UN Security Council to hold emergency meeting on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam dilemma

The UN Security Council (UNSC) will hold an emergency meeting today to discuss the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

Today’s meeting comes amidst flaring political tensions between Ethiopia and Egypt after Addis Ababa recommenced GERD’s filling without Cairo’s consent. At issue, Egypt has demanded Ethiopia fill the dam over seven years to ward off potential water shortages in Egypt’s High Aswan Dam (HAD), but Ethiopia has stated it will fill GERD over five years to utilize its hydroelectric generation sooner.

Egypt’s fears of water shortages because of GERD are largely unfounded. GERD’s filling and normal operations will not have a significant impact on the Nile’s downstream states—even if a severe multi-year drought occurs—given Egypt and Ethiopia cooperate. Instead, Cairo’s protest of Addis Ababa’s dam likely stems from GERD upending Egypt’s hegemony of the Nile, forcing Egypt into cooperation.

Expect the UNSC to urge Egypt and Ethiopia to resume negotiating under the auspices of the UN or African Union. Both sides will likely return to talks in the short-term, but an agreement will likely only manifest in the medium- to long-term as Ethiopia continues to fill GERD and build pressure at the negotiating table for Egypt to make concessions.