US sanctions on PDVSA will test the military’s loyalty to Maduro
Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido has called for a nationwide strike today ‘to demand that the armed forces side with the people’ in an ongoing standoff with President Nicolas Maduro.
Over the past week, Mr Guaido has been recognised as interim president by dozens of Western countries, although heavyweights Russia and China continue to support President Maduro.
Today’s strike comes two days after Washington announced fresh sanctions targeting Venezuelan state oil giant PDVSA. The sanctions will cost the firm $11 billion of revenue in 2019 and also freeze $7 billion in offshore assets, which the US says will be repatriated once Maduro’s regime has fallen.
However, Mr Maduro will remain in power so long as he commands the support of the military. It is this support that the US is trying to weaken; PDVSA has been dominated by top military personnel since a shakeup in late 2017. The latest sanctions will deprive top commanders of the income they derive from PDVSA, driving a wedge between them and Maduro.
When—or even if—a tipping point is reached is anyone’s guess. But, with the White House suggesting that military action is not out of the realm of possibility, the US now has its thumb firmly on the scales.
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