Jonathan Frances

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Jonathan Frances
Jonathan is the East and Southeast Asia team’s lead analyst for stories emanating from China and Southeast Asia.

US weight on the scale tips Indonesia’s strategic balance
- Southeast Asia
- July 30, 2020
Jakarta’s non-aligned stance is challenged by a maritime dispute with China and the threat of US sanctions.
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Modern problems, Party solutions: 2019-nCoV in Xi’s China
- China
- February 12, 2020
Another mass migration, poor public sanitation and Party politics could see the coronavirus outbreak intensify.
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Grappling with the future through the past
- Economics & Finance
- August 20, 2019
Trade and history disputes have pushed the Japan-South Korea relationship to the edge.
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China’s grey zones in the East and South China Seas
- China
- July 12, 2019
Coercion of fishing boats and illegal maritime surveys are symbolic of China’s effective occupation.
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Why Trump will never achieve denuclearisation in Korea
- Asia Pacific
- February 24, 2019
North Korea’s capacity to target the US with a nuclear-armed ICBM has fundamentally altered the status quo
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China’s digital backdoor: Huawei in Southeast Asia
- Technology & Society
- January 17, 2019
For some states, the threat of cyber espionage may be worth the risk to improve social control.
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2019 forecast: inter-Korean relations on track
- Forecast
- January 5, 2019
Despite the hype, UN sanctions and US priorities will stymie further progress in relations.
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2019 forecast: the Indonesian general elections
- Forecast
- January 5, 2019
Economics is likely to be front and centre of the campaign but China may be a surprise issue.
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2019 forecast: China and the ‘Uyghur problem’
- Forecast
- December 24, 2018
The mass incarceration of the ethnic minority could damage China’s international standing.
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President-General Secretary: Trong’s power consolidation
- Southeast Asia
- November 13, 2018
Vietnam’s consensus-based model of communist rule is sliding towards authoritarianism.
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President for life: Xi’s campaign to reunify Taiwan
- China
- October 3, 2018
The self-ruled island’s position on the international stage has been severely curtailed by Beijing.
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Xi’s damage control with Chinese characteristics for a new era
- China
- August 19, 2018
China’s ‘president for life’ may face unexpected resistance at the Beidaihe conference.
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Debt diplomacy: Mahathir follows the corrupt 1MDB trail
- Southeast Asia
- July 21, 2018
If China renegotiates Malaysia’s debt, it could cause a cascade of demands from other countries.
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Climate change: Trump and Kim melt a Cold War glacier
- Korea
- June 21, 2018
The question of who got the better deal in Singapore is beyond all reasonable doubt.
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Spratly no more: The new order in China’s ‘Ancestor Sea’
- Southeast Asia
- May 24, 2018
Beijing’s slow-burning ambition to control the strategic sea appears to be a nearing completion.
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“You’re fake news”: censorship in Southeast Asia
- Southeast Asia
- April 25, 2018
Anti-fake news legislation may be used against legitimate media sources and political adversaries.
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Warming the ice: North Korea at the Winter Olympics
- Asia Pacific
- March 1, 2018
As President Moon looks forward to engage with the North, his greatest achievement may be behind him.
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Honest broker? Singapore in the driver’s seat
- Asia Pacific
- January 25, 2018
Singapore will struggle to reconcile the competing interests of other ASEAN members and China.
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In the firing line: South Korea’s wartime OPCON transfer
- Asia Pacific
- November 9, 2017
President Moon is determined to take back control of South Korea’s operational command from the US.
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Testing Hun Sen: Cambodia’s opposition flees into exile
- Southeast Asia
- October 25, 2017
By silencing the opposition, Prime Minister Hun Sen faces little opposition at next year’s election.
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