Brazil’s National Congress will begin a midterm break today that will run until August 1.
Each four-year congress is comprised of four sessions which begin in February and stop in July for a midterm break, before resuming in August and ending in December.
Currently, both the National Congress’ senate and chamber of deputies are controlled by allies of far-right President Jair Bolsonaro. Both belong to an amorphous group of center-right—and some right wing—politicians called the ‘Centrao,’ or ‘Big Center.’ Their support helped deter impeachment efforts against Bolsonaro following his mishandling of COVID-19 and other crises.
When the National Congress reconvenes in August, Bolsonaro will have roughly two months before presidential and general elections that could substantially upend Brazil’s current political climate. Current polls show Bolsonaro trailing by 10% to left-wing former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva of the Worker’s Party, whose leader was recently assassinated by a policeman shouting pro-Bolsonaro slogans. Political violence is likely to increase as the election nears, something which Bolsonaro nominally condemns but has been accused of stoking himself. Should Bolsonaro lose the presidency—an increasing possibility— he’ll also lose immunity from prosecution. In this case, expect charges against him for a host of issues, including breaches of secrecy and spreading misinformation.
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Jon is a Content Editor and Analyst within the Analysis division of Foreign Brief.