Bulgaria’s parliamentary and presidential elections will take place today.
The country’s presidential post is largely ceremonial. Thus, citizens will primarily focus on the parliamentary elections, given Bulgaria’s failure to form a government in April and July. Unable to secure a cabinet, former Prime Minister Boyko Borisov stepped down in April after 12 years in office. Borisov remains a candidate for prime minister under his GERB party, but currently polls at roughly 24%—down 2% from July. Competing for second place in the polls are the centrist We Continue the Change party and the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP)—polling respectively at 16.5% and 16%.
GERB is expected to receive the most parliamentary seats, but will likely fall short of a majority. It is unlikely that GERB will be able to form a coalition, as its far-right coalition partners face the difficulty of meeting parliament’s 4% support threshold. With corruption a major political issue, expect the BSP and We Continue the Change to try to form a governing coalition with other anti-graft parties.
Anti-corruption parties may try to put aside their differences to end the stalemate. However, expect coalition negotiations to remain arduous, likely leading to another dissolution of the parliament.
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Alex is an Analyst focusing on political events in the post-Soviet space. With a background in international law and diplomacy, his expertise lies in the geopolitical, economic and energy security dynamics of the South Caucasus.