Iowa voters will head to the polls for the first major contest of the US 2020 election primary season.
There are three rounds of voting in the Iowa primary. The first is a pre-realignment vote, determining which candidate received the most popular votes. This is followed by a stage where voters may realign their support if they originally picked a non-successful candidate. Finally, the votes are counted to determine how many delegates each candidate will be awarded at the convention; the state of Iowa sends 41 delegates to the Democratic National Convention.
The momentum of a win in Iowa has historically been predictive of who becomes the Democratic Party’s nominee—in the over 100-year history of the Iowa caucuses, 55% of candidates who “won” the contest went on to be the party’s presidential contender.
At the moment, Senator Bernie Sanders is leading in the polls in Iowa, but former vice president Joe Biden remains within the margin of error. Expect either of these two candidates to come out on top, giving them a strong chance to face President Trump in the November general election.
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Steven is a member of both the Risk Analysis and Current Developments teams. Serving as both a researcher and publisher, he assists with the delivery of all facets of the Daily Brief. Steven's writing focuses on China, Russia, and macroeconomics.