European authorities will release economic growth and employment figures for the Eurozone today.
The aggregate figures are expected to raise questions about the adverse impact of the US-China trade war on Germany, a key trade partner of both countries, and Europe as a whole. Recent statistics on the Eurozone’s largest economy are causing concern; German exports fell 8% year-on-year in June, and industrial production was down 1.5% between May and June—a figure that was three times larger than expected. Jobs figures also appear to be stalling, despite Germany’s very low unemployment rate of 3.1%.
Trade between Germany and the US and Germany and China has been holding up well. Concerns for Germany have more centred on uncertainty over the outcome of the trade clash between the two superpowers and fears concerning Germany’s auto industry, which demands heavily on demand from operations in China.
Given the importance of the German economy to the global financial system, a downturn in Germany will send shockwaves throughout Europe. These shockwaves could be exasperated by other political and economic concerns plaguing Europe in addition to the trade war—such as the fear of snap elections in Italy and the Boris Johnson government’s management of Brexit.
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Nick is the Director of the Daily Brief and a contributing Senior Analyst to it. An attorney, his areas of expertise include international law, international and domestic criminal law, security affairs in Europe and the Middle East, and human rights.