Guinea opposition group, the National Front for the Defense of the Constitution (FNDC), is expected to hold country-wide protests today after the group was forcibly dissolved last week.
In 2021, Guinea’s former President Alpha Conde was ousted by a military coup. Interim president and coup leader Mamady Doumbouya faced an Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) mandated transition of the country back to democracy. In order to avoid sanctions from ECOWAS, Doumbouya agreed to a two-year official timeline for a democratic transition in Guinea beginning in August.
However, the recent dissolution of FNDC represents a significant departure from conditions that would lead to a real democratic transition in Guinea. Recent FNDC protests have also been violently suppressed by the ruling junta, and today’s protests are likely to see a similar heavy-handed response.
For Guinea, a failure to actively move towards a democratic transition is very likely to mean that ECOWAS will impose sanctions on the country. More broadly, with coups in three out of fifteen ECOWAS countries in 2020, the bloc itself may face significant difficulties in maintaining cohesion. Coup leaders in Burkina Faso, Guinea and Mali are making slow progress in their democratic transitions with a similar three-year timeframe for successful transitions.
Daniel is the Chief Operating Officer of Foreign brief. He oversees the production and publishing of all of Foreign Brief's products. His background is in the air, space and cyberspace domains of national security and Indo-Pacific geopolitics. He is fluent in Mandarin Chinese.